Climate-related events affected at least 13 million people across Africa in 2025, according to a study examining weaknesses in early warning systems across the continent. Despite improvements in forecasting, many warnings do not reach communities soon enough, are not trusted or fail to provide the support needed for people to take protective action.
The risks are illustrated by recent disasters. Tropical Cyclone Freddy caused widespread flooding in February 2023 and resulted in more than 1,500 deaths. A drought in southern Africa during 2015–16 led to extensive crop failures and food insecurity for 40 million people.
Household surveys in Madagascar, Malawi and Mozambique found that warnings about approaching tropical cyclones reached most respondents—90% in Madagascar, 80% in Malawi and 77% in Mozambique. However, fewer than half of those who received an alert evacuated.
Researchers from the University of Bristol’s Cabot Institute for the Environment, alongside academics from the U.K., Europe and southern Africa, examined why warnings do not consistently lead to protective action. Their findings identify several obstacles, including late communication, doubts about forecast information, involuntary immobility and limited resources for evacuation.
Published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, the study proposes six priorities: improving understanding of unprecedented risks; stress-testing early warning systems; strengthening national hydrometeorological services; involving communities in resilience-building; combining local and scientific knowledge; and improving coordination between agencies.
Lead author Lizzie Kendon, professor of climate science at the University of Bristol’s Cabot Institute for the Environment, said effective early warning systems require more than accurate forecasts. Warnings must reach everyone, communicate risks clearly and help people take appropriate action, she said.
The researchers also stress the need to prepare for extreme events beyond the range of historical experience. Their recommendations support the United Nations’ Early Warnings for All initiative, which aims to protect everyone worldwide from natural hazards through early warning systems by 2027, by shifting the focus from issuing warnings to enabling communities to act on them.
Sources: Phys.org.