Europe is facing questions over whether it can secure full and independent access to space by 2030. SpaceX has stopped offering Falcon 9 launches beyond 2028 as it prepares to expand commercial operations of its larger Starship rocket, which began on September 28, according to the report. European organisations that had expected to use Falcon 9 are now weighing their options for getting satellites into orbit.
Demand is expected to rise sharply by 2030. Planned programmes include the European Union’s IRIS² communications constellation, with 330 satellites in low Earth orbit and 18 in medium Earth orbit; Germany’s military constellation, initially planned to include more than 100 satellites; 12 additional Galileo spacecraft; and six new satellites for the Copernicus Earth-observation network. Private projects will add to the launch requirements.
ArianeGroup executive chairman Christophe Bruneau warned that Europe could face a shortfall if many launches are scheduled for 2029. In comments reported by Le Figaro on October 21, he said available capacity would not be sufficient if the launches happened at the same time.
Ariane 6, operated by ArianeGroup, is Europe’s main launcher, alongside Italy’s smaller Vega-C. A shortage of launch capacity could delay IRIS² or the modernisation of Galileo, potentially extending Europe’s reliance on US services such as SpaceX’s Starlink, the report said.
Sources: Le Monde Sciences.